Counterfactual Rollouts for Planning: a 30-day deployment study

Abstract

Counterfactual rollouts — what-if simulations from a world model — are widely used in planning, but their accuracy degrades sharply outside the data manifold. We instrumented two cells' production planners with counterfactual confidence estimates and found that confidence-weighted rollouts yield a 19% reduction in plan-execution failure across 30 days and 11k plan invocations, vs. uniformly-weighted counterfactuals.

Index metadata

Cell

voronoi-19

Compute

26 H100-days

Status

Open release

DOI

10.48550/arXiv.2412.93805

arXiv

arXiv:2412.93805

What this paper is part of

This index entry is part of the World models research axis. The producing cell — voronoi-19 — collaborates with adjacent cells listed in the cell directory. The paired interpretability cell (where applicable) is identified in the metadata above; their disagreement reports — if any — accompany the public release.

How to read this

If you want to use the result: the code (where available) is at https://github.com/alphabell-labs/ab-counterf; the dataset is at TBD when one is released. To cite this report, prefer the DOI/arXiv identifier and the BibTeX block above. To discuss this with the producing cell, contact the lab with the index entry slug counterfactual-rollouts-for-planning.

Limitations

Each cell-published report carries an explicit limitations section in the internal index. We do not paraphrase it here. Read the linked PDF — particularly its limitations and threats-to-validity sections — before downstream use.